There’s no shortage of reasons to feel cautious in the global drinks industry right now. Tariffs. Inflation. Changing drinking habits. AI coming for jobs.
Every keynote seems to open with the death of something. The death of alcohol. The death of middle management. Adapt or die. AI will flatten organisations and remove the humans in the middle.
If we let that drumbeat get inside our heads, fear starts doing the thinking for us.
Fear makes us protect what we already have instead of growing into what we could be. Fear narrows our vision, pushing us into scarcity thinking rather than abundance. Fear makes us conservative when the moment actually calls for creativity.
When fear is in charge, we don’t invent new things. We cling to what we know. We double down on familiar structures, familiar products, familiar thinking – desperate not to be disrupted, replaced, or consumed by AI… or by fear itself.
But what if we choose to think differently? And what if opportunity is hiding in plain sight?
As winter finally loosens its grip in the Northern Hemisphere and spring edges closer, here are four reasons I’m feeling quietly – but confidently – optimistic.
Dry January was more damp than dry
In the UK, retail multiple Waitrose recently reported a “significant softening” of the Dry January trend. In January 2022, alcohol sales were around 42% lower than the rest of the year. By January 2026, however, that decline was closer to 25%.
Waitrose’s head of beers, wines & spirits, Pierpaolo Petrassi, summed the situation up neatly: “Damp is the new dry.”
Consumers are moving away from rigid, all-or-nothing abstinence towards something more realistic — mindful moderation that fits into real lives. This isn’t rejection; it’s recalibration.
It feels less like a retreat from alcohol and more like a renegotiation of its role. And that feels like an inflection point, not a crisis.
The on-premise is booming – if you know where to look
The loudest narrative says the on-premise is struggling. The reality, of course, is more nuanced.
UK on-premise multiple Young & Co’s just posted an exceptional festive season, with like-for-like sales up 11.2% against a very strong comparator. Trading over Christmas Eve, Christmas Day and Boxing Day was even stronger, up 12.3%.
Things are also going well at London pub, bar and restaurant group Urban Pubs & Bars – it is accelerating expansion, reporting like-for-like growth of 14.5% in December. Meanwhile, Star Pubs, a Heineken-owned UK network of around 2,400 pubs, saw a 10% increase in applications for leased and tenanted pubs this January versus last year.
Growth hasn’t disappeared. It’s just uneven. And those who understand experience, relevance and locality are still winning.
RTDs are growing up
The RTD category is maturing and that’s no bad thing.
The breathless race to launch endless new flavours is slowing. Innovation has been expensive, risky and increasingly inefficient. Brands are starting to invest back into core portfolios rather than chasing novelty for novelty’s sake.
In 2021, IWSR’s ‘RTD Innovation Catalogue’ found that more than 3,400 RTDs launched across the world’s top ten markets. By 2024, that number had dropped to just over 1,800.
Between 2020 and 2025, flavoured alcoholic beverages grew 9% in value and 5% in volume, with momentum forecast to continue through 2029. Premixed spirits are expected to grow even faster, according to GlobalData’s ‘Flavoured Alcoholic Beverages Market Outlook’.
What’s most interesting is when this growth has happened. During a cost-of-living squeeze, RTDs have accelerated. On paper, consumers should be trading down. Instead, many are trading across – into convenience.
RTDs are starting to behave like an affordable luxury: a small, permissible upgrade when bigger indulgences are off the table.
Authenticity beats adjacency
Elton John launching an alcohol-free sparkling wine isn’t just celebrity endorsement – it’s a masterclass in authenticity.
By the late 1980s, the British singer-songwriter was deep in addiction. He entered rehab in 1990 and has been sober ever since. January’s launch of Elton John Zero Blanc de Blancs isn’t borrowed credibility or a wellness halo. It’s lived truth.
Consumers are increasingly sharp at spotting the difference. Research consistently shows that authenticity has a powerful impact on trust, loyalty and purchase intent. When the story is real, it resonates harder and lasts longer.
Recent research by Drs Christina Papadopoulou, Merve Vardarsuyu and Pejvak Oghazi underscores the pivotal role of brand authenticity in cultivating consumer trust and loyalty. Their study indicates that brand authenticity significantly influences purchase intentions, with a notable effect size (β = 0.54), highlighting its importance in consumer decision-making processes.
Periods of uncertainty don’t just create risk – they create permission. Permission to rethink habits. Permission to challenge lazy assumptions. Permission to design brands around how people actually live, not how we wish they behaved.
So, yes, there are reasons to be cautious. But, there are just as many reasons to be optimistic… if we choose to see them.
And right now, optimism feels like the braver, smarter bet.
