The global online alcohol market is entering a new era of sustainable growth, according to latest data from IWSR. After years of pandemic-driven spikes and subsequent corrections, e-commerce sales of beverage alcohol are forecast to surpass US$36bn by 2028, reflecting a 20% increase in value over the next five years.
Findings from IWSR’s recently released ‘Ecommerce Strategic Study’, which analyses the online alcohol channel across 18 key markets (Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Colombia, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Netherlands, Nigeria, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, the UK and the US), underscore the evolving role of digital platforms in shaping consumer behaviours, not just as purchasing channels but also as influential spaces for discovery and brand engagement.
“After significant volatility over the past five years, global channel dynamics appear to be stabilising,” said IWSR’s head of e-commerce insights, Guy Wolfe. “While alcohol e-commerce has been growing in importance, it is now clear that its influence extends far beyond online transactions.
“Digital platforms now play a pivotal role in driving offline sales, as more consumers rely on online research to guide their in-store purchases. For brand owners, maintaining a strong digital presence is crucial. Prioritising the development of robust online strategies and continually refining digital content will be critical to staying competitive and capturing consumer engagement across channels.”
Resilient growth of $6bn
From 2023 to 2028, the online alcohol market across 18 key markets is forecast to grow by 20% in value, adding $6bn in incremental growth. This steady trajectory marks a shift from pandemic-driven volatility to a more predictable growth pattern.
A high proportion of future growth is expected to come from the two single largest e-commerce alcohol sectors: China marketplaces and US omnichannel. Smaller channels will also contribute to value, including those in Australia, Japan and Mexico.
The spirits category will lead future growth, with agave-based spirits and whiskey/whisky emerging as top-performing subcategories. Wine and particularly beer will also show steady growth, driven by markets like China and, in the case of the former, Italy.
Social commerce drives growth in China
China’s online marketplaces are expected to remain dominant, contributing $1.9bn in value growth by 2028. Among these, social commerce platforms like Douyin (TikTok) are reshaping consumer interactions by combining shopping with entertainment and allowing fans to purchase directly from their favourite online personalities and influencers.
While regulations on the sale of alcohol mean social media platforms are primarily a digital marketing tool in most countries, they have become an important and growing sales channel in China.
While the country’s online user base has fallen recently, it remains the highest of any market. Chinese consumers are connected and tech-savvy, and attitudes to e-commerce are still very positive, supporting a return to growth in the near term.
American whiskey a key category for the US
The US continues to be a vital market for the online alcohol sales globally, with the proportion of alcohol buyers shopping online rising by 4 percentage points over the prior year, according to the latest IWSR consumer survey, conducted in Q3 of 2024.
A high number of current non-users (especially Millennial consumers) indicate a likelihood of adopting online purchasing in future as well. Frequency of online shopping has also surged, with weekly purchases increasing by 13 percentage points. American whiskey is a standout category, with prestige products, such as high-end Bourbon, rye and American single malts, driving a significant share of forecast growth.
Modest rises expected from smaller e-commerce markets
In general, less developed e-commerce alcohol markets have seen channel use fall back closer to pre-pandemic levels. Online sales in the UK will also continue to decline from a high base, before a return to growth from 2026 onwards.
Outside of China and the US, markets that will contribute the most growth include Japan, Australia and Brazil. Italy is expected to expand at the fastest rate from a fairly low base, driven in part by supermarkets increasing investment in online grocery capabilities. Consumer research indicates that the Italian online alcohol shopper base increased last year by around 500,000.
Consumer behaviour normalises
Online shoppers are beginning to settle into more consistent patterns. Value-seeking remains a priority due to economic pressures, but discovery and experimentation continue to drive online purchases.
Across the key markets, 24% of shoppers cited finding new brands as a key reason to shop online, emphasising the channel’s potential for innovation and engagement.
An important research tool
E-commerce has become a critical tool for research: 63% of online alcohol buyers conduct extensive research before making a purchase, a trend increasingly mirrored by offline shoppers.
Digital sources like brand websites, product reviews and even delivery apps are becoming integral to purchasing decisions. Notably, price comparison and product discovery rank as the top research drivers, highlighting the growing role of digital ecosystems in influencing consumer choices across all channels.
