In 2024, the value of e-commerce sales for beverage alcohol declined for the third successive year, but the channel is showing clear signs of resilience, with a return to modest growth predicted in the years ahead.
According to IWSR’s ‘E-commerce Strategic Study 2025’, which covers more than 85% of global e-commerce value*, the channel recorded a slight dip in value terms of 1% last year, largely due to slowing sales in China and the US, in turn caused by lower total alcohol sales brought on by macroeconomic weakness and uncertainty.
Those losses in China and the US were the main drivers of the channel’s underperformance in 2024, leading to a revision of IWSR forecasts for the years ahead.
However, e-commerce’s share of total beverage alcohol (TBA) value held steady last year at 3.5%, a level that IWSR predicts will be maintained in 2025, before growth returns, rising to a 3.8% share figure in 2029.
The relative stability recorded last year follows a rollercoaster period for online alcohol sales, from rapid growth during the Covid-19 pandemic (2019-21 value CAGR of +35%), to a subsequent correction (2022-23 value CAGR -5%), and then last year’s smaller decline.
For the 2024-to-2029 period, IWSR is forecasting CAGR value growth of 3%.
“After two years of correction as channel dynamics normalised in the wake of the pandemic, e-commerce alcohol sales have stabilised and are set to return to modest growth over the forecast period,” said IWSR’s head of e-commerce insights, Guy Wolfe. “Our consumer research suggests that online usage has dipped again in 2025, but to a lesser extent than the physical off-trade, indicating greater resilience of the digital channel.
“Frequency of use remains stable in most markets – although China is an exception – while volume and total basket spend still skew significantly higher in e-commerce than offline. As such, online growth is still expected to outperform the wider market, gaining modest share of total alcohol and the off-trade in the coming years.”
* Including core markets: Australia, Brazil, China, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Spain, the UK, the US; and secondary markets: Canada, Colombia, Mexico, Netherlands, Nigeria, South Africa
Established markets spearhead growth
Between 2024 and 2029, China, Brazil and the US are expected to account for more than half of total online alcohol value growth – a reflection of consumer attitudes to e-commerce adoption and use, which are most positive in markets where online is already more mature.
Over the forecast period, China is expected to record a value CAGR gain of +3%, compared to +6% for Brazil and +2% for the US.
But opportunities also persist in smaller markets: excluding China, Brazil and the US, the rest of the top 16 countries are expected to grow at a value CAGR of +3% over the same timescale. Significant absolute value growth will be provided by the UK (CAGR +1%), Australia (+3%) and Mexico (+12%), with larger CAGR rises in smaller markets such as Canada (+7%) and Colombia (+8%).
Beer leads, whiskey/whisky and agave drive spirits
In the years ahead, a significant proportion of online alcohol sales growth is expected to come from beer, which is forecast to register a 2024-to-2029 value CAGR lift of 6%. Meanwhile, wine is expected to lose share due to a flat performance to 2029, with spirits maintaining its share thanks to a value CAGR rise of 2% over the same timescale.
“Beer/cider/RTDs is expected to grow fastest and add the most value online, steadily gaining e-commerce share to 2029,” explains Wolfe. “Beer’s current lower penetration, brewer investment and growth in the category’s core omnichannel and on-demand sectors will support its expansion.”
Within spirits, whiskey/whisky will benefit from its high online conversion rate: although it has a smaller consumer base than many other alcohol categories, the sector stands out as showing the strongest e-commerce focus, with 15-to-17% of drinkers having bought whiskey/whisky online, depending on the sub-category, ahead of the likes of champagne, still wine and beer.
American whiskey is expected to challenge scotch’s leadership of online spirits sales in the years ahead, thanks to strong domestic growth, and an overall CAGR value gain of 3% in 2024-to-2029, versus scotch’s CAGR lift of 1%.
Meanwhile, agave-based spirits’ 5% CAGR gain is also largely tied to the US market, but its growth within the channel is becoming broader-based.
Channel trends defined by value and convenience
While platforms in China remain the largest single sector for online alcohol sales worldwide, more absolute value growth is expected to be generated by on-demand in the country, and by omnichannel in the US, between 2024 and 2029.
“Omnichannel and on-demand will be the key drivers of online channel growth to 2029,” says Wolfe. “Marketplaces are being reshaped by social commerce and Amazon, while online specialists and direct-to-consumer (D2C) face hurdles. Grocer investment in digital capabilities and shopper value-seeking will support omnichannel expansion, while on-demand has consolidated in recent years and is set for renewed, convenience-led growth.”
IWSR predicts that D2C sales by value will be flat between 2024 and 2029, with online specialists declining slightly. Growth will come from omnichannel (2024-to-2029 value CAGR +3%), on-demand (+8%) and marketplaces (+2%)
Shopper research rising, aided by AI
The number of alcohol shoppers carrying out research before they buy is continuing to rise. While this behaviour is most pronounced in e-commerce, offline buyers often also make use of digital information sources to inform their purchasing decisions.
Premium-and-above shoppers are more likely to undertake research, as are consumers of less commonly purchased categories, such as champagne and whiskey/whisky, with still wine also highly researched due to its diversity.
“Digital sources remain vital for doing research, and are particularly used to gather information, while discovery/inspiration still frequently occurs offline,” explains Wolfe. “After familiarity, research is key in brand selection, but social media is highly influential in China and among younger age groups.
“Deals, reviews and visuals are key for those who choose while browsing.”
Artificial intelligence (AI) is beginning to transform how consumers discover and purchase alcoholic drinks online, as well as the way retailers sell in e-commerce, with IWSR consumer research indicating that 16% of purchasers globally asked AI for a recommendation the last time they bought a product online. This figure is highest among Gen Z and Millennial consumers, and in the US and Brazil.
Meanwhile, among IWSR survey respondents who chose the last alcohol brand they bought online while browsing a retailer’s site, 22% said they were influenced by an AI tool, such as a chatbot or virtual sommelier. This was particularly important in the US.
