San Miguel effect pulls on Carlsberg in Q1- results data

Three-month sales – to end of March – decline 1.5% to DKK20.12bn (US$3.07bn)
Non-renewal of San Miguel licence in UK pulls on top line
Quarterly volumes down 2.3%, “exacerbated” by San Miguel loss

Carlsberg has flagged “a rather unique and uncertain external context” during the first three months of 2025, as quarterly sales ducked below the water line.

The group’s top line slipped by 1.5% on the corresponding period a year ago, hampered by the decision by Mahou San Miguel last year not to renew the production and distribution arrangement in the UK for its namesake beer brand. Stripping out the loss of San Miguel, Carlsberg’s Q1 performance came in flat.

Volumes-wise, the period finished down by 2.3% (-1.1% excluding San Miguel), although the namesake brand grew 1% with Tuborg rising by 3%. The ‘alcohol-free brews’ portfolio, meanwhile, registered a 15% volumes jump.

The picture was less rosy geographically-speaking; the ‘Western Europe’ reporting region, which bore the brunt of Mahou San Miguel’s decision, declined 2.9% in value sales, although “underlying growth” remained in the UK. ‘Central & Eastern Europe and Asia’ was flat, with double-digit volumes growth in India being offset by the effect of price rises elsewhere in the region.

Over in Asia, sales also stagnated (-0.4%) on a 2.1% volumes dip. Unlike its rival, Heineken, which posted a return to growth in Vietnam for Q1 earlier this month, Carlsberg said its performance in the country was impacted by intensified competition and promotional activities”.

“It was a soft start to the year, impacted by the loss of the San Miguel brand and continued subdued consumer spending in an environment with increased macroeconomic volatility,” said CEO Jacob Aarup-Andersen. “We’re pleased with the positive development in China, the strong growth in India and the underlying good performance in the UK.”

Following today’s results announcement, CFO Ulrica Fearn posted a video on LinkedIn (below), noting in her caption that the group is “operating in a rather unique and uncertain external context … at this moment in time”.