The US wine industry has entered 2026 still under pressure, but with early signs that the steepest phase of its demand correction may be easing, new research has claimed.
In the 2026 edition of its ‘State of the US Wine Industry Report’, Silicon Valley Bank says the sector remains structurally challenged, even as the pace of decline begins to slow. SVB forecasts 2025 year-end wine volumes of around 329m cases, down from 335.9m in 2024, with industry revenue falling to around US$74.3bn from $75.5bn in the year prior.
While declines are expected to moderate this year, the bank does not anticipate a collective return to growth for the country’s wine producers, pointing instead to a “bumpy bottom” forming in 2027-2028 before any modest recovery.
The report, now in its 26th year, highlights a widening performance gap between upper-quartile wineries that continue to grow and lower-performing players that are struggling to adapt. SVB says success is now “behavioural”, driven by sharper consumer engagement, disciplined inventory management, clearer brand positioning and hospitality-led strategies rather than passive distributor pull or automatic wine club growth.
Oversupply remains a major structural headwind, with too much planted acreage in certain varietals and continued pressure on grape contracts. SVB warns that 2026 is likely to mark a capitulation point, with some growers and wineries exiting the market as the industry attempts to rightsize its capacity and reorient towards a younger, more values-driven consumer base.
Looking ahead, SVB stresses that stabilisation will not mean a return to past norms. The recovery phase, it says, will reward producers that fundamentally change how they market and sell to, and engage with, consumers, rather than waiting for demand to revert to historical patterns.
Earlier this month, the health authorities in the US revised their advice on alcohol consumption in the latest update to the country’s federal Dietary Guidelines.
