Sub-Saharan Africa represents one of the most compelling long-term growth opportunities for beverage alcohol, spearheaded by fast-growing, young and urbanising populations alongside expanding middle classes. The region’s markets are far from homogeneous, however, and trading conditions can be complex and difficult – challenging even the industry’s most established players.
In 2025, according to IWSR data, total beverage alcohol (TBA) volumes in Sub-Saharan Africa increased by 1% and are forecast to expand at a CAGR of 2% between 2025 and 2035. All major categories are expected to grow over the next decade.
Regional standouts last year included the performance of RTDs, which grew volumes by 11%, and spirits (+6%). Beer rose by 1%, but wine declined by 3%. Agave-based spirits were up 8%, and are expected to grow at a CAGR of 5% to 2035.
“Africa is often cited as beverage alcohol’s next frontier – and the demographics justify the attention,” says IWSR‘s research director for Africa & Middle East, Russell Menezes. “The population is young, fast-growing and rapidly urbanising – a structural tailwind for beverage alcohol demand across multiple markets.
“Aspirational consumption is a recurring motif – alcohol brands serve as symbols of social mobility for emerging middle classes, even during periods of economic strain. South African consumers demonstrably trade up selectively for special occasions, and the same is true for other African countries, such as Nigeria, Tanzania, Ghana and Ethiopia.”
However, these countries also face economic challenges that are not temporary headwinds but structural features of the trading landscape, while the consumption of alcohol is restricted or prohibited in some markets for religious or cultural reasons.
Downtrading – rather than premiumisation – is the dominant consumer behaviour, particularly in recent years, leading drinkers to migrate from spirits to beer, from imports to local brands, and from commercial products to artisanal or informal alternatives. Smaller, cheaper pack formats are enjoying explosive growth for affordability reasons.
Across Sub-Saharan Africa, locally-produced products dominate, accounting for 97% of beer volumes in 2025, 80% of spirits, 87% of RTDs, 59% of wine and 71% of cider, according to IWSR data.
“There’s no doubting the scale of the opportunity for alcohol in Sub-Saharan Africa, but the path to capturing that opportunity is complicated by structural volatility, a persistent dominance of low-priced local and artisanal products, and route-to-market challenges,” explains Menezes.
IWSR analyses the opportunities presented by three key Sub-Saharan Africa markets
Kenya – Explosive growth for tequila, Irish whiskey
Local spirits – particularly flavoured local cane and brandy – and RTDs are the main growth categories in Kenya, with volumes climbing by 13% and 14%, respectively, in 2025. Moderate growth is expected to 2035: IWSR forecasts predict that spirits volumes will rise at a CAGR of 2%, while RTDs has an expected CAGR of 4%.
“As in Nigeria, RTDs offer a sweeter alternative to beer and appeal to younger LDA consumers and women,” says Menezes. “The small cocktails and long drinks segments are expanding, with both local and imported brands in growth.”
In spirits, Irish whiskey volumes jumped by 35% in 2025, while tequila soared 65%. Both are expected to record more moderate CAGR increases of 3% and 6%, respectively, between 2025 and 2035 as the country’s economy improves.
Nigeria – Millennials hold the key
Gen Z poses a long-term recruitment challenge in Nigeria, as the cohort is substantially less engaged with alcohol than older groups and most Gen Z abstainers state little intention of starting. Millennials remain the crucial age cohort, representing the largest share of drinkers, and exhibiting the highest participation and heaviest drinking occasions, according to IWSR Bevtrac consumer research.
RTDs and spirits (mostly local) are growing strongly here: both expanded their volumes by 8% in 2025, with identical CAGR growth of 3% predicted for 2025-35. Gin, bitters, cream liqueurs and whisk(e)y saw some of the strongest growth.
“Downtrading is reshaping the whisk(e)y market in Nigeria, with Indian whisky gaining momentum and blended scotch contracting as consumers seek stronger value propositions,” reports Menezes. “Indian whisky caters to Indian expats and aspirational Nigerian consumers, but blended scotch retains a considerably larger consumer base.”
Meanwhile, the RTD category is dominated by flavoured alcohol beverages (FABs). Their convenience and appeal as sweeter alternatives to beer have made them popular, especially with female and younger LDA consumers.
South Africa – RTDs and spirits to the fore
“IWSR‘s Bevtrac consumer research shows that South Africa is a stable but constrained market, with affordability pressures sustaining moderation and simplifying consumption, although the rising confidence of Gen Z offers an early positive sign of recovery,” says Menezes.
Against this backdrop, beer has emerged as the most resilient category of alcohol, benefiting from its central role in social and at-home occasions. According to IWSR data, beer volumes in South Africa increased by 3% last year, and are predicted to expand at a CAGR of 2% between 2025 and 2035.
RTD volumes surged by 14% in 2025. “RTDs’ compact, affordable packaging resonates strongly with female and younger LDA+ consumers, and they match the trend towards more moderate consumption,” explains Menezes. “As consumers look to manage their budgets, there’s been a shift away from bottles of spirits and wine to easy-drinking RTDs.”
Within spirits, there are clear pockets of opportunity: Canadian whisky and Irish whiskey are making inroads as emerging middle-class consumers perceive them as more affordable than scotch whisky, and better quality than South African whisky. The country’s Canadian whisky volumes in 2025 were up 8%, while Irish whiskey increased by 2%. However, heavy promotions and discounting risk eroding equity of some spirit brands, especially in scotch.
Cognac/armagnac volumes grew by 18% in 2025, with a CAGR of 5% forecast to 2035. “Cognac’s high-status reputation resonates strongly with the image-conscious middle and upper classes, and appeals to younger LDA drinkers,” says Menezes. “The category is expected to sustain its strong growth trajectory, underpinned by growth across grades, deeper premiumisation and an increasingly competitive brand landscape.”
Tequila’s recent rapid growth (volumes +7% in 2025) is built on its go-to status for shots, alongside rising demand for sipping premium-and-above expressions. As consumers become more discerning and knowledgeable about the category, this premiumisation trend is set to fuel higher value growth than volume growth in the years ahead.
IWSR’s Sub-Saharan Africa data covers Angola, Benin, Botswana, Cameroon, Congo, Democratic Republic of Congo, Djibouti, Equatorial Guinea, Ethiopia, Gabon, Ghana, Ivory Coast, Kenya, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, Nigeria, Reunion, Senegal, Seychelles, South Africa, Tanzania, Togo, Uganda and Zambia.
The above analysis reflects data from IWSR’s 2026 data release. For more in-depth data and current analysis, head here to request a callback from IWSR.
