In 2025, alcohol spend continued to decline across most of the world’s major markets as the long-running premiumisation trend slowed and even slipped into reverse thanks to falling consumer confidence.
According to preliminary data from IWSR, during 2025, total beverage alcohol (TBA) volumes in the world’s leading 21 markets* (plus global travel retail) declined by 2%, with value down by 4% – the first year in recent history that volume performance outstripped that of value.
In category terms, volume declines were all but ubiquitous, with beer slipping by 1% on the year, and declines for spirits (-1% excluding national spirits; -4% including them) and wine (-4%). RTDs, however, posted gains for volume (+2%) and value (+4%).
There are clear signs that premiumisation is taking a back seat, as TBA value fell for the first time since 2020, with spirits especially impacted. A few bright spots included the continued gains for no-& low-alcohol and growth in emerging markets – India in particular.
“Despite rising GDP, the volatile political and trade landscape, and the embedding of lifestyle trends, continued to shape alcohol consumption during 2025,” says IWSR‘s MD, Marten Lodewijks. “High inflation, political polarisation and international conflict have dampened consumer confidence, leading to a reduction in alcohol spending across most T21 markets.
“This, coupled with consumers becoming more conscious of and intentional in their alcohol consumption, is leading to people going out less, and consuming fewer categories when they do.”
Thanks to persistent pressure on disposable incomes, consumers are prioritising spend on fresh food, personal care and cleaning products: according to IWSR‘s ‘Bevtrac’ consumer research, recalled spend on alcohol in 2025 declined in every T21 market except for China and India, where research is confined to urban, middle-class consumers. A similar trend is observed in terms of on-premise visits, with no sign of channel recovery on the horizon.
“A turbulent 2025 has caused the drinks industry to recalibrate,” explains Lodewijks. “Tariff disruption and a cautious consumer put premiumisation strategies under pressure, while emerging markets offered a rare bright spot.
“The major multinational spirits players, whose prior strategies centred chiefly on continued premiumisation, are now shifting tack. Recent restructuring and leadership changes indicate a greater focus on volume, relevance and more evenly weighted portfolios across price tiers, rather than margin expansion.”
* Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Colombia, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, Mexico, the Netherlands, the Philippines, Poland, Russia, South Africa, Spain, Taiwan, Thailand, the UK and the US
Premiumisation pause
BWS (beer, wine and spirits; excluding RTDs) value dipped by 1% last year, with premium-and-above products mirroring that fall and almost half of the T21 markets recording declines.
Despite wine’s ongoing structural challenges, consumers are compensating by drinking less overall, but higher-priced bands are declining less – the same trend is not observed in spirits, however, where the volume share of the premium-and-above price bands receded to less than 10%, with value-and-below commanding a dominant 70% of the global market.
Super-premium-and-above spirits posted a 15% value slump in 2025 (including national spirits), and standard-priced products were down 7%. Slightly more positive trends were apparent in the value-and-below (-4%) and premium (-5%) price tiers.
“As a result of falling disposable incomes and weak consumer sentiment in many of the T21 markets, the previous trend towards premiumisation has slowed or, in some cases, gone into reverse,” says Lodewijks. “Across spirits and beer, the premium-plus segments performed worse than lower tiers, as shoppers exercised caution.”
US buffeted by tariff impact
The drinks industry in the US was severely disrupted in 2025 by the imposition of sweeping tariffs and subsequent retaliatory measures. Steep declines in US wine and spirits exports were driven by Canada, where products from across the border were boycotted and taken off retail shelves, and alcohol imports were also heavily impacted.
“The ever-changing nature of the tariffs – or the threat of them – also caused chaos in the marketplace, with some importers halting shipments mid-transit, while others stockpiled ahead of deadlines, creating further supply chain volatility,” explains Lodewijks.
Emerging markets offer hope
Brighter prospects are offered by certain emerging markets, with India to the fore. The country registered TBA volume (+4%) and value (+5%) gains again in 2025 – a standout performance with growth across virtually all drinks categories. New trade agreements with the UK, the EU and New Zealand, plus an interim deal with the US, should boost growth further.
Beyond India, smaller regional markets are also increasingly relevant: Colombia, Mexico, South Africa and Thailand all posted TBA gains in 2025, offering brand owners much-needed opportunities for organic growth.
RTDs a key growth driver
RTDs continued their strong momentum during 2025, significantly outperforming the wider TBA market and showing broad-based growth. Only China and Germany experienced value declines, while the greatest gains were seen in Canada, Japan and South Africa, with good performances also in Brazil and Mexico.
The category’s leading market, the US, was flat in terms of value, but the ongoing decline of hard seltzers in the country masked strong growth in other sub-categories, such as pre-mixed cocktails. Wine-based drinks also performed well, boosted by tax advantages over spirit-based products.
Further gains for no-alcohol
No- & low-alcohol only accounts for a small proportion of total volumes in its respective categories, but these products are continuing to gain traction across the T21 markets, spearheaded by no-alcohol beer, which grew volumes by 8% during 2025 – while the overall beer category shrank by 1%.
Meanwhile, no-alcohol spirits volumes rose by 7%, and alcohol-free wine variants registered growth in Canada, France, the UK and the US – despite a weak total category performance – as improved technologies led to improvements in quality.
“The consumer focus on mindful, selective consumption, and health & wellness, had a positive impact on all no-alcohol sub-categories during 2025, with growth rates generally higher than those of their full-strength counterparts,” reports Lodewijks.
Irish whiskey and agave-based spirits outperform
In a difficult year for international spirits categories, Irish whiskey and agave-based spirits were notable exceptions, expanding volumes by 2% and 1% respectively – registering growth in most of the T21 markets despite declines in their largest market, the US.
“Irish whiskey gained traction in India, Japan and Poland, while agave increased sales in markets including Mexico, Colombia and the UK,” says Lodewijks. “In keeping with broader consumer trends, however, growth in both categories came primarily from the standard and premium price bands last year.”
Mixed fortunes for local spirits
Local spirits, which often sell predominantly in a single market, played a key role in the overall performance of beverage alcohol during 2025, from domestic whisky in India to baijiu in China and shochu in Japan.
Domestic Indian whisky recorded another year of robust growth, expanding by 5m cases and adding nearly US$500m in value, while gin’s strong global performance was largely driven by gains for domestic, mostly low-priced products in the Philippines and India.
National spirits – chiefly baijiu in China and shochu in Japan – continued their long-term volume decline, dragging down the wider category because of their scale. Baijiu suffered an even greater value fall, with high-end products impacted by the economic slowdown and a fresh wave of restrictions imposed by the Chinese government.
Wine declines, but signs of trading up
Wine’s structural volume decline continued in 2025 – still wine volumes were down 5% thanks to notable declines in China, France, Germany, Italy, the UK and the US. However, there were significant gains for no-alcohol wine in Canada, France, the UK and the US.
Nevertheless, in a mixed year for the category, there were clear signs of consumers trading up to more expensive products, with declines felt more strongly at the affordable end of the market, and higher-end wines proving more resilient.
