Beer is undergoing a long-term structural transformation in the US market, where widespread consumption declines are being partially offset by the rapid and continuing expansion of the no-alcohol segment.
Last year, according to IWSR, beer volumes in the US fell by 3%, consistent with the -3% CAGR decline recorded over the 2019-24 period. This trend is set to continue, with IWSR predicting a -3% CAGR decrease between 2024 and 2029.
The performance of no-alcohol beer in the US provides a sharp contrast with this lacklustre picture: volumes surged up +23% in 2024, mirroring CAGR growth of +23% in the 2019-2024 period, which equates to absolute volume gains of 175% over the same timescale. This rapid expansion is predicted to persist, with forecast CAGR growth of +18% to 2029.
With the exception of the much smaller stout category, no-alcohol is the only beer segment in the US to show growth on any of these measures.
“The beer category in the US has faced a sustained erosion of consumption occasions, driven by long-term shifts in consumer behaviour, demographic change and competitive category encroachment,” says IWSR‘s US president, Marten Lodewijks.
“Historically, beer occupied a dominant position in casual and social drinking moments. However, this has been steadily undermined by the rise of alternative alcohol formats, particularly RTDs, which have captured attention with convenience, innovation and lifestyle alignment.
“Within this challenging context, the no-alcohol beer segment has continued to grow, fuelled by the rise of sober curiosity, functional wellness trends and broader acceptance of better-for-you alcohol alternatives. More brands are entering this space with improved formulations and health-conscious positioning.”
Using IWSR’s unique US Navigator database, which provides a monthly read of total beverage alcohol (TBA) trends across all 50 US states, the recent performance for non-alcoholic beer can be analysed in granular detail.
Here are some of the findings, based on the period between 2019 and April 2025
Seasonal peak
Nationally, no-alcohol beer volumes peak during August, with strong performances in June and July, reflecting heightened consumer demand during the summer months. This is very much aligned to general beer performance and suggests that no-alcohol beer is not seen by consumers as just a ‘Dry January’ drink.
Seasonal lows
February and April show the lowest average volumes, suggesting a post-Christmas and ‘Dry January’ dip and slower momentum in early spring.
State by state
The top five states in terms of no-alcohol beer consumption, based on their total volumes from 2019 to April 2025, are: California, Florida, Texas, Massachusetts and New York – which is largely related to the size of the population.
Last year, these five states combined accounted for 35% of total US no-alcohol beer volumes. In per-capita terms, the top five states are Maryland, Connecticut, Wisconsin, Colorado and New Jersey.
Wisconsin stands apart
Wisconsin’s monthly trends are an outlier from the national pattern. The state lacks a clear summer peak, and shows irregular volume shifts.
As the segment continues to expand, no-alcohol beer is increasingly dominating other no-alcohol sub-categories in the US, buoyed by its established maturity in the market and the continuous launch of new brands from both large and small brewers.
“Future volume increases will be driven by a number of factors, including increased efforts to expand draught options in the on-trade, and the involvement of celebrity-owned and endorsed brands,” says Lodewijks. “These celebrity associations are helping to reshape the industry, giving sobriety enhanced social acceptance among consumers.
“Meanwhile, e-commerce presents a growth opportunity for beer in general, as the category under-indexes online, compared to categories that are more established in the channel, such as wine and spirits. This is a particularly significant opportunity for no-alcohol beer, because direct-to-consumer sales can be fulfilled across the US, with no regulatory restrictions.”
Despite this impressive performance, however, projected gains for no-alcohol beer in the US will not be sufficient to fully offset continued declines in the consumption of full-strength products. This is explained by persistent losses in the dominant lager segment, which in 2024 accounted for more than 85% of overall US beer volumes.
